HIGHER RATES SLOWED SALES—BUT BUYERS REMAINED ENGAGED

C.J. and I have been enjoying the beautiful fall weather at the ranch. The wildlife seem to love it too. We have a feeling this may be one of their favorite seasons as well.

From a real estate perspective, September demonstrated just how quickly buyers can respond to changing mortgage rates.

Closed sales across the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos metropolitan area declined sharply, but prices, pending contracts and several other indicators showed a market that was more complicated than that one number might suggest.

SEPTEMBER SALES FELT THE EFFECT OF HIGHER RATES

According to the September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report from Unlock MLS, 2,223 residential properties sold during the month—a decline of 14.8% compared with September 2025. Unlock MLS attributed much of the slowdown to rising mortgage rates and the effect those rates have on buyers’ monthly payments.

The median sales price, however, increased 1.4% to $421,000. Pending sales declined only 1.8% to 2,313, suggesting that although some buyers stepped back, others remained engaged and continued moving forward.

SEPTEMBER 2026 CENTRAL TEXAS HOUSING NUMBERS

 • 2,223 closed sales — down 14.8%

• $421,000 median sales price — up 1.4%

• 3,546 new listings — up 2.8%

• 13,465 active listings — down 3.4%

• 2,313 pending sales — down 1.8%

• 5.4 months of inventory — 0.1 months lower

• 73 average days on market — three days fewer

• $1.27 billion in total sales volume — down 10.4%

• 92.7% average close-to-original-list-price ratio — compared with 91.4% in September 2025

All comparisons are year over year.

THE THIRD QUARTER PROVIDES A BROADER VIEW

September’s 14.8% decline in closed sales was significant, but the third-quarter numbers were less dramatic. Across the full quarter, 7,748 residential properties sold—2.4% fewer than during the third quarter of 2025. The quarterly median sales price declined 2.3% to $420,000.

Taken together, the numbers suggest that September’s slowdown was influenced heavily by the recent rise in mortgage rates rather than by the market moving uniformly in one direction throughout the quarter.

WHAT THIS MAY MEAN FOR SELLERS

Buyers have not disappeared, but many are approaching decisions more cautiously because the monthly cost of purchasing has increased. In this environment, preparation, presentation and pricing become especially important. A property must compete for the attention of a more selective group of buyers, and sellers should not assume that simply entering the market will produce immediate activity.

Homes that closed in September received an average of 92.7% of their original asking price. That was an improvement from 91.4% one year earlier, but it also shows that negotiation and adjustment remain part of many successful sales. 

The objective is to position a property thoughtfully from the beginning, monitor the market’s response and be prepared to adjust when new information becomes available.

WHAT THIS MAY MEAN FOR BUYERS

Higher mortgage rates can create a real affordability challenge, particularly for first-time buyers and others whose decisions are driven by monthly payment.

At the same time, slower sales and 5.4 months of inventory may create opportunities to negotiate price, repairs, closing costs or other terms with motivated sellers.

The right decision will depend less on trying to predict the next movement in interest rates and more on understanding the complete cost of the purchase, the buyer’s expected ownership period and the circumstances surrounding the individual property.

EVERY PROPERTY HAS ITS OWN MARKET

Regional statistics provide important context, but they cannot determine what will happen with a particular home. Neighborhood, location, condition, competition, price range and presentation can produce very different results—even within the same broader market.

Whether buying or selling, the objective is to understand your particular position and develop a strategy suited to it.

Jon & C.J.

Pfau & Company Realtors

Preparation. Positioning. Negotiation. Results.